Principal components of monsoon rainfall

Prediction of monsoon rainfall

Prediction of monsoon rainfall for a mesoscale Indian catchment based on stochastical downscaling and objective circulation patterns E. Zehe, A. K. Singh, and A. Bardossy Institute of Geoecology, University of Potsdam, Germany Civil Engineering Department, Nirma University of Science and Technology (NU) Ahmedabad 382 481, India Institute of Hydraulic Engineering, University of Stuttgart, German...

Forecasting All-india Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Regional Circulation Principal Components: a Comparison between Neural Network and Multiple Regression Models

Pre-monsoon principal components (PCs) of circulation fields covering the South Asian subcontinent were used as predictors for all-India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) over the period 1958–1993. Predictive skill of non-linear neural network models and linear multiple regression models was compared using a bootstrap-based resampling procedure. Monsoon precursor signals represented by PCs were i...

Indian Monsoon Rainfall

Advancing Indian Monsoon Rainfall Predictions

Despite great strides made in seasonal climate forecasting using dynamical models, skill in predicting the Indian monsoon is woefully poor. Our analysis of the reasons for failure exposes a flaw in the popular design of dynamical prediction systems. The approach of driving atmospheric models with a projected ocean surface temperature presupposes Indian monsoon variability to be a consequence so...

Advancing dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall

[1] Despite advances in seasonal climate forecasting using dynamical models, skill in predicting the Indian monsoon by such methods has proven poor. Our analysis identifies a flaw in the hitherto popular design of prediction systems in which atmospheric models are driven with a projected ocean surface temperature. Such a configuration presupposes Indian monsoon variability to be a consequence s...